NOV 22, 2011 ROTARY IN REVIEW:
The Economic Situation and Outlook, Ed Lotterman
Call to Order – Doug Bruce, Presiding
America, led by Jerry Faletti with Leon Goodrich at the piano.
Invocation by Chuck Graham.
John Guthmann led introductions of visiting Rotarians and guests. Recognition of greeters (Vicki Gee-Treft & youth exchange student Veru Valdivia) and Scribe (Michael-jon Pease)
Reminder: No Vocational Speaker this Thursday. Happy Thanksgiving everyone!
Nancy McKillips reminded us all to “Think Membership!” and recognized all club members who have brought in new members this year.
Derek Sharrer reminded us it’s not too late to register for the Holiday Party/Silent Auction on December 1. Among the many great items is “Be a Saint for the Day” with the Saint Paul Saints. Attend batting practice, sit in the dug out, coach first base – and keep the uniform!
Bo Aylin encouraged members to sign up for the remaining bell ringing slots for the Salvation Army on Dec. 8 and 9. Last year, Rotarians helped bring in more than $2,000. Every slot not filled with a volunteer gets filled with paid staff, so your time is a valuable contribution!
Bill Handschin reported that almost $4,800 came in to the club’s foundation on Give to the Max Day – about 20% of the goal. It’s never too late to give!
Linda Mulhern introduced our Rotary Youth Exchange student Veru Valdivia. Veru spoke about her time at Highland Senior High, learning to play hockey (still not clear on the rules), soccer, cross-country skiing (“falling down a lot!”) and ice skating (“I still don’t know how to stop!”) She enjoyed her first snow for a few hours last Saturday. Veru comes from a small coastal town in Chile NE of Santiago. She attends a small school (800 students in grades 1-12) and has been with the same group of classmates since she was six. She plans to study medicine, specializing in Endocrinology. She’s been thankful for the chance to improve her English since medical text books are cheaper in the English than in Spanish. Veru’s Rotary Youth Exchange application was the highest rated in all Chile and she closed by saying “And I got the best club in the U.S.!”
Randy Kroll introduced our speaker, economist Ed Lotterman. In short, he said our financial crisis is “in remission, not cured.” His outlook is somber – we’re not headed to an upswing, but we can “muddle through.” Uncertainty dominates the outlook, making financial models meaningless. The unemployed are staying out of work longer than at any time since the Great Depression.
Ed quantified the “Hard Unknowns” of the next decade as:
· The prospects for the Euro (his prediction is not good)
· Can China transition away from its export-dependent model?
· Will we see another round of “Too Big to Fail” banks on the brink of collapse?
· Adverse politico-military events in African and the Middle-East
His overarching message was that real economic change can’t happen without a major overhaul of the Federal fiscal system, including major changes in the two largest entitlement programs (Social Security and Medicare). Federal revenues need to return to their historic levels (the current tax rate is the lowest it’s been in 60 years with no positive impact on GDP, Debt –GDP ratios, hiring or productivity). A vigorous exchange of questions and answers closed the program at 1:40 p.m.
Michael-jon Pease, Scribe