OCTOBER 18, ROTARY IN REVIEW: Stephan B. Young

President Chuck Whitaker rang the bell to bring the meeting to order at 12:15 p.m. on a cloudy fall day in downtown Saint Paul. Vice President Jerry Faletti led the assembled Rotarians in singing our national anthem The Star Spangled Banner accompanied by Dennis Boom on the piano. Jason Bradshaw provided today's Inspirational Minute. Shelly Rucks facilitated the introduction of visiting Rotarians and guests. Today's greeters were Kristin Montpetit and Heidi Fisher.

President Chuck asked for reports from the various Club 10 activities that are underway. Jason DeKeuster reported that the Rose Sale will net approximately $10,000 in profits to the Foundation. John Overland provided an update regarding Rotation Day scheduled for November 8th. Three member locations are planning to host: Visit Saint Paul, Neighborhood House and Minnesota Opera. Rotation Day registration is available online at the Club 10 website. President Chuck is emphasizing Rotation Day as a member activity this year.

Kristin Montpetit promoted the Holiday Party on Thursday, December 8th from 6:00 p.m. to 9:30 p.m. ($60 per ticket) at the University Club. Donation items for the Silent Auction are needed with the need for quality items stressed. Please RSVP soon. Steve Gerber invited everyone to the Summit Brewery on Thursday morning to label dictionaries for the Dictionary project (this replaces the Thursday morning fellowship meeting at the Boys Scouts office this week only). Shelly collected Happy Dollars. President Chuck reminded members to post to the Club 10 Facebook page including placing our pictures of events there (send pictures to member John Chandler for posting).

Jay Pfaender introduced today's speaker, our own Rotarian Steve Young. Jay referred to Steve as the most "in the News" Rotarian in the Twin Cities. Steve is on the Editorial Pages, in the news reports, etc. Steve began his presentation by asking the question: Is the middle class disappearing? Has the economic recovery since 2007 been a satisfactory recovery? Is there a dynamic economy for the Middle Class? In Steve's opinion, Americans have mixed feelings about the recovery. The data he cited focusing on the middle class explains our presidential campaign in his opinion.

Steve divided his presentation into three segments: (1) a statistical review of the economic recovery since 2007; (2) a review of societal statistical trends from the last eighty years showing broad societal shifts; and, (3) conclusions Steve has drawn regarding how the economic context is influencing the outcome of the presidential election.

In the first segment, the data showed that since 2007 fifteen thousand (15,000) American factories have shutdown; two million (2,000,000) manufacturing jobs are gone with a resulting five-and-a-half million (5,500,000) fewer American jobs. Since the recovery, two-and-a-half million (2,500,000) more people are now employed but the employable population has grown by eighteen million (18,000,000). 102,600,000 working age Americans do not have a job right now. 7,900,000 working age Americans are "officially unemployed." 94,700,000 working age Americans are considered to be "not in the labor force." Average earnings have flat lined. But the Dow Jones is up. Wealth Effects are up.

In the second segment, Steve presented statistics indicating that retail markets are now more concentrated; the five largest banks now control more assets than ever before; loss of consumption power due to decline of middle class; since 2008 business closures have exceeded business creations; big banks have cut back on lending to small businesses; U.S. companies hold $1.73 trillion cash abroad; U.S. spending on education has flat lined; the most recent census reported the percentage of one person households in the U.S. at 28%; in 2011, 45.8% of U.S. mother's reported their status as "never married;" in the past eighty (80) years, the number of incarcerated Americans has grown by nearly two million (2,000,000); "trust" in the federal government has dropped from nearly 80% during the Kennedy/Johnson administration to less than 20% during the Obama/Biden administration; and, measures of party polarization in the U.S. House of Representatives conclude that there are few, if any, Representatives "in the middle" who can act as intermediaries between warring factions, who can foster compromise. From all of these trends, Steve concludes that no matter who wins on November 8th things will get worse.

Steve used a graphic in his final segment to illustrate his take on the current presidential race. He sees a culture war developing between four factions: Sanders' base, Clinton's base, Trump's base and Establishment Republicans. He placed the competing values of the factions on two axes: the "Religion of Reason" juxtaposed with Christianity and "middle and low income" Americans juxtaposed with "New Class-Professional Managers." Steve views the main battleground as the Establishment attempting to prevent the Trump base from gaining a share of power. Starting with President George H.W. Bush, all of our presidents have matriculated at either Yale or Harvard. Donald Trump did not. Trump represents this outside element that cannot be allowed to gain a share of the power in the estimation of the Establishment. Hence, this culture war that has developed which has its genesis in the broad societal trends shown in the economic trends cited in the first two segments of today's presentation. Steve brought it all together with this final analysis.

President Chuck thanked Steve for his presentation and presented him with a Club 10 recognition certificate and noted that a donation would be made in his name to the Saint Paul Public Library's "Reading Together" program. He also presented Steve with a Rotary coin inscribed with the Rotary "Four-Way Test." President Chuck then rang the bell to close the meeting at 1:19 p.m.

Chuck Standfuss, Scribe